I’VE always been wary of league form and attaching too much significance to league results.
Training loads, an eye on the summer, trying different players and systems, form and confidence are all part of a vortex that makes the league a conundrum to assess, certainly in Division 1.

It’s hard to place too much emphasis on a competition that teams don’t really want to win.

Derry feel they have a need for a league win this year. Tyrone would find it beneficial. Kerry and Dublin would take it or leave it. Galway seem very ambivalent about where the league takes them, even if it means relegation.

Mayo look like a team who would run a mile from the possibility of retaining their title, both in the camp and among the fans at large. But relegation would be a huge step back.

Kevin McStay seems very keen on the balancing act of the six-point mark – no more, no less. Getting to a league final last year may not have been the plan but they embraced it once it became a possibility. It was hard to blame them at the time, but losing to Roscommon the following weekend put a different slant on it – many felt league success had come at the cost of a Connacht championship.

Of course, this assumes Mayo would have beaten Roscommon if they had a two-week break and avoided the league final. That is wishful thinking and unfair to the particular challenges Roscommon bring.

But this year there is no doubt that Mayo are not chasing after the league.

They found themselves in what one would think was the ‘surprising situation’ of winning their first two games. Especially when you consider the poor performance for long stages of the Dublin game. Perhaps that coloured and changed Mayo’s approach in recent weeks.

Whatever about the game in Tralee, where Mayo made very few alterations, the eight changes for the trip to Omagh screamed of a team who were not pushed about the two points.

You do not rest your top forward, Ryan O’Donoghue, if you feel winning is vital.

In the last two games we saw Mayo giving very little cover to a beleaguered full-back line.
Rory Brickenden was isolated on David Clifford, Sam Callinan got very little protection on Darragh Canavan.

Perhaps they are trying these one-on-ones as a right training spin for these players to learn as much as they can in spring and have the support of cover in the summer.

One would hope so, and Mayo’s defensive cover and shape was more pronounced in the first two games so it’s hard to be certain as to their defensive strategy.

Playing looser at the back has meant that both Kerry and Tyrone have enjoyed lots of space and reaped the reward on fast transitions, be it from turnovers or winning kick-outs. Mayo’s forwards have not had the same luxury – how often have we seen any of our inside attackers in a one-on-one situation? Rarely enough.

That’s something which has to be factored into consideration when assessing our forwards – we might leave space defensively but very few of our opponents do. But that is far from the only concern about Mayo.

Our attacking intent is not clear. It seems we attempt to work high percentage shots but that is hard achieved in a crowded defence. The direct play which was so effective in last year’s league has fallen away. The quality of passing has been an issue but so has our forward set-up and speed of transition.

Personnel is a factor too – your full-forward line approach is different with Aidan O’Shea in it. James Carr could bring much needed zest inside when he returns and Tommy Conroy, O’Shea and Cillian O’Connor are all trying to find form.

Perhaps there is a feeling that Mayo showed too much of their hand last spring and became easier to predict and plan for in the summer.

With our kick-outs, our approach seems to be very cautious. Colm Reape and Rob Hennelly appear to have been instructed to seek a short or mid-range kick at the expense of long kick-outs. It leaves us very vulnerable to a press, as we saw at stages of the last three games.

You would expect that a management team of Kevin McStay, Stephen Rochford, Donie Buckley, Damien Mulligan and Joe Canney are working on something better than we are seeing at both ends of the field.
Perhaps the players simply are not executing the plans at the minute or perhaps Mayo are playing a slow burning game, waiting for the summer.

The trouble with that approach is whatever plan you have, you need players playing with confidence and form to execute it. And after Tyrone, that has to be a concern. A loss this Saturday against Roscommon – a very conceivable scenario – would only heighten fears around confidence and form.

Ciarán Murphy rightly highlighted Galway’s relaxed current demeanour on this week’s podcast. But they have their five best players to return. We’ve had injury concerns too – after back to back man of the match displays, Paddy Durcan’s loss is huge while Diarmuid O’Connor badly needs game time to get back to his brilliant best – but our losses are not of the same quantity as Galway’s.

We’re not sure Mayo would be as blasé about getting relegated so Saturday night takes on a significant importance for a league game in early March.

Mayo need to react positively to Omagh. They need to be able to deal with a Roscommon side who will be difficult to play against when you look at Mayo’s weaknesses – the Rossies will try to transition and counter fast to accurate forwards and generally will crowd their defence. Exactly what Mayo struggled with in Omagh.

It will be fascinating to see what Mayo’s approach is both in terms of tactics and attitude. Both teams, in all likelihood, will be returning to face each other in the Connacht semi-final. Will this be a phoney war?
It’s doubtful, especially when the provincials have reduced in significance.

Indeed, for all the talk about it being ‘only the league’, staying up in Division 1 might be more important to both teams than winning their championship clash.

Saturday is a big one.